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Abstract All species must partition resources among the processes that underly growth, survival, and reproduction. The resulting demographic trade‐offs constrain the range of viable life‐history strategies and are hypothesized to promote local coexistence. Tropical forests pose ideal systems to study demographic trade‐offs as they have a high diversity of coexisting tree species whose life‐history strategies tend to align along two orthogonal axes of variation: a growth–survival trade‐off that separates species with fast growth from species with high survival and a stature–recruitment trade‐off that separates species that achieve large stature from species with high recruitment. As these trade‐offs have typically been explored for trees ≥1 cm dbh, it is unclear how species' growth and survival during earliest seedling stages are related to the trade‐offs for trees ≥1 cm dbh. Here, we used principal components and correlation analyses to (1) determine the main demographic trade‐offs among seed‐to‐seedling transition rates and growth and survival rates from the seedling to overstory size classes of 1188 tree species from large‐scale forest dynamics plots in Panama, Puerto Rico, Ecuador, Taiwan, and Malaysia and (2) quantify the predictive power of maximum dbh, wood density, seed mass, and specific leaf area for species' position along these demographic trade‐off gradients. In four out of five forests, the growth–survival trade‐off was the most important demographic trade‐off and encompassed growth and survival of both seedlings and trees ≥1 cm dbh. The second most important trade‐off separated species with relatively fast growth and high survival at the seedling stage from species with relatively fast growth and high survival ≥1 cm dbh. The relationship between seed‐to‐seedling transition rates and these two trade‐off aces differed between sites. All four traits were significant predictors for species' position along the two trade‐off gradients, albeit with varying importance. We concluded that, after accounting for the species' position along the growth–survival trade‐off, tree species tend to trade off growth and survival at the seedling with later life stages. This ontogenetic trade‐off offers a mechanistic explanation for the stature–recruitment trade‐off that constitutes an additional ontogenetic dimension of life‐history variation in species‐rich ecosystems. 

Populations of forest trees exhibit large temporal fluctuations, but little is known about the synchrony of these fluctuations across space, including their sign, magnitude, causes and characteristic scales. These have important implications for metapopulation persistence and theoretical community ecology. Using data from permanent forest plots spanning local, regional and global spatial scales, we measured spatial synchrony in tree population growth rates over sub-decadal and decadal timescales and explored the relationship of synchrony to geographical distance. Synchrony was high at local scales of less than 1 km, with estimated Pearson correlations of approximately 0.6–0.8 between species’ population growth rates across pairs of quadrats. Synchrony decayed by approximately 17–44% with each order of magnitude increase in distance but was still detectably positive at distances of 100 km and beyond. Dispersal cannot explain observed large-scale synchrony because typical seed dispersal distances (<100 m) are far too short to couple the dynamics of distant forests on decadal timescales. We attribute the observed synchrony in forest dynamics primarily to the effect of spatially synchronous environmental drivers (the Moran effect), in particular climate, although pests, pathogens and anthropogenic drivers may play a role for some species. 

Abstract Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species^1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)³. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests^4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species^6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD^8,9have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data^10–12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones¹³. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity^14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests. 

Abstract Organisms of all species must balance their allocation to growth, survival and recruitment. Among tree species, evolution has resulted in different life‐history strategies for partitioning resources to these key demographic processes. Life‐history strategies in tropical forests have often been shown to align along a trade‐off between fast growth and high survival, that is, the well‐known fast–slow continuum. In addition, an orthogonal trade‐off has been proposed between tall stature—resulting from fast growth and high survival—and recruitment success, that is, a stature−recruitment trade‐off. However, it is not clear whether these two independent dimensions of life‐history variation structure tropical forests worldwide.We used data from 13 large‐scale and long‐term tropical forest monitoring plots in three continents to explore the principal trade‐offs in annual growth, survival and recruitment as well as tree stature. These forests included relatively undisturbed forests as well as typhoon‐disturbed forests. Life‐history variation in 12 forests was structured by two orthogonal trade‐offs, the growth−survival trade‐off and the stature−recruitment trade‐off. Pairwise Procrustes analysis revealed a high similarity of demographic relationships among forests. The small deviations were related to differences between African and Asian plots.Synthesis. The fast–slow continuum and tree stature are two independent dimensions structuring many, but not all tropical tree communities. Our discovery of the consistency of demographic trade‐offs and life‐history strategies across different forest types from three continents substantially improves our ability to predict tropical forest dynamics worldwide.